Acts of God (Part 2)

     As promised, behold! the second and final set of natural disasters, each rated in terms of:

1. chance of pants-, uhh, sullying (CPS),

2. wake of destruction (WOD),

3. badass requirement for survival (BRS).

     If you didn't catch the first installment, read it first! At the end of this post you can find a table useful for comparative analysis. You are welcome to agree - or disagree! - with my conclusions, provided you've already accepted that your conclusions are wrong.
     So, without further ado...

Earthquake (tremor): the shaking of the ground caused by a sudden release of seismic energy in the earth's crust.

CPS 80% A fissure in the ground itself - reaching to the very depths of hell?? No one's comfortable with the idea of falling down one of them. Worse than that is the distortion of reality. Everything around you shaking. You can't see the danger, you have no idea where it might be safe - and these come without warning, despite ongoing efforts to discover a scientific means of prediction. The moment a vibration begins, you freeze like a deer caught in headlights, trying to figure out if it's just a passing truck. Aww, shit. It's not.

WOD 50% We've been told that the Big One is going to sink half of California. Not to mention earthquakes can in some cases cause volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, avalanches, and probably wildfires, too, if power lines were to fall down. However, a single earthquake isn't gonna do it all - either tsunamis or huge gaping fissures, not both. You'll probably still be able to drive your car - just be extra careful of potholes.

BRS 70% Sorry, kids, but hiding underneath your school desk just isn't going to cut it. Without working electricity, water and gas, the world is essentially turned into a post-apocalyptic zombie fest. While it's happening, you have to jump from side to side to avoid heavy things crushing you. And afterward, cleaning up sucks, but you may not even have the option if a gas line has been ruptured and your home suddenly catches fire. And if you're away from civilization, as we know from Descent, even a simple cave-in can trap you in the darkness with dozens of hungry human-like creatures.
Total score: 200

Viral epidemic (pandemic): An unstoppable outbreak of a new or unusual disease in a large human population not localized to a particular region.

CPS 80% Depends what the virus does, and so many possibilities exist. Children of Man came slowly but decisively; 28 Days Later and I Am Legend came swiftly and biting your face. Most seem to turn ordinary postal workers into violent and angry denizens of an ever-growing zombie army. (Well, maybe not so unfamiliar after all!) Regardless, a virus is another invisible foe, and worse still, one who attacks from the inside and the outside. The flu isn't scary, but the flu that causes you to eat your dog's genitals is another matter.

WOD 50% Human civilization? Gone. Everything else? Eerily intact. The only hope is to establish a quarantine area in time, but by the time you've slowed down an epidemic you've typically let it spread to multiple continents.

BRS 100% This has the potential to be absolutely the most demanding survival test of all time. Not everyone's infected, but the majority are, but you can't always see who is and who isn't. You have to become completely self-sufficient, yet still looking for friends. And once they've all died off, you are king of the world!
Total score: 230

Gamma ray burst (GRB): an explosion from another solar system in our galaxy, cooking the earth with radiation.

CPS 30% No one talks about this one. There's not really anything we could do about it. If it were to happen, we'd see a bright light flash, equivalent to a second sun. People would make inquiries, and our leaders would be reluctant to tell us what happened - at least until we had trouble breathing. Suffocating at an almost imperceptibly slow speed without knowing why might not be a bad way to go, actually.

WOD 100% In the unlikely event that a burst were to occur close enough to our solar system to affect us, the Nitrogen Oxide produced would destroy the Ozone layer. Just apply more sun block, right? Tell that to the countless trillions of photosynthetic plankton in the oceans that provide well over half of earth's oxygen. After that, the food chain must somehow reconstitute itself, a process that probably won't happen fast enough to stop us all from starving to death.

BRS 10% Even the biggest badass needs food to survive. The only human beings that might survive this one are scientific minds who find a way to turn rocks into hamburgers, or figure out how to individually coat each little plankton with sun screen. It'd have to be the water-proof kind, too - none of that cheap stuff.
Total score: 140

Plague of locusts: normally solitary grasshoppers swarming by the billions

CPS 60% People who are afraid of giant flying bugs (and that's most people) will be absolutely horrified. Thankfully, you can shut the door until they pass. But that doesn't stop the incessant buzzing, which I doubt many home stereo systems could block out. Not to mention the particularly biblical flavor of this disaster - Prince of Egypt-style, right? If you believe God's out on a warpath, you're going to be trembling even if you're safely inside.

WOD 60% Locusts eat their body mass each day. Which means a swarm a billion strong, each weighing about two grams, consume two million kilograms daily. They will consume nearly any food crop, including pearl millet, rice, maize, sorghum, sugarcane, barley, cotton, fruit trees, date palm, vegetables, rangeland grasses, acacia, pines, and banana. Did I mention their feces are toxic? Can you imagine how much there'd be? Bleh. The famine that follows will devastate any pre-industrial civilization. I guess that means we're ok.

BRS 30% Well, I guess you're gonna be hungry, and you might starve unless you can stomach locust droppings or kill that fatted calf in the back yard. Scrounging for food doesn't sound very badass to me. Eating grasshopper poop even less so. No wonder there's never been a successful film about it.
Total score: 150

Impact event (asteroid collision): the earth's collision of a sizable meteor or comet.

CPS 70% Since this has never happened in our lifetime it's difficult to be afraid. Or maybe it's that much easier. Deep Impact, right? Humanity panics, riots break out, the government starts putting all the scientists and professors and artists (only the good ones) in caves. People who aren't chosen are entitled to soil themselves. Still, you might not even see the asteroid coming, much less hit. And its effects would take hours to manifest themselves over the entire planet.

WOD 90% Well, life as you know it is over. If a big one hits (think Melancholia). Thankfully, none is expected until 2880, and hopefully the scientists are right. But what do they care? They know they'll be safe in the underground bunkers a mile below the surface with six gazillion frozen dinners. This remains the most likely cause of the human race's extinction. If the asteroid hits land, a dust cloud blocks out all sunlight for years, basically equivalent to a global nuclear winter - extinction. If it hits water, we get tsunamis and a lot of extra rain, minor earthquakes and volcanic eruptions - no extinction.

BRS 90% In the worst case - a ground impact - I'm thinking something like The Postman, where the world's a desert inhabited by violent tribal societies? Governmental control goes to hell after the bullets and the hot dogs run out, and after fifty or a hundred years of rotting inside a cave, people get impatient and come back out. Then we finally get down to business - survival of the badassest.
Total score: 250

	Chance for Pants-Shitting	Wake of Destruction	Badass Requirement for Survival	Total
tsunami	90	60	40	190
hurricane	40	80	20	140
tornado	100	30	50	180
wildfire	50	30	80	160
eruption	90	70	80	210
earthquake	80	50	70	200
epidemic	80	50	100	230
gamma rays	30	100	10	140
locusts	60	60	30	150
impact event	70	90	90	250

And the winner goes to: impact event, by a nose!
Runner-up: viral epidemic.
Scariest : tornado.
Most destructive: gamma ray burst.
Most challenging: viral epidemic.

Acts of God (Part 1)

     I've been living in Oklahoma for almost four years now. Whenever I travel people ask me about the tornadoes. They seem to have the impression that at any given time, there are a few dozen tornadoes ambling around the state, devouring small farms and vaulting cars, houses, people and chipmunks into the stratosphere.

     Wherever you're living, certain natural disasters will plague your existence. But at the same time, people get used to the dangers they face every day. Some coastal citizens would personally castrate their firstborn before relocating to Tornado Alley. On the other hand, when there's a twister nearby, most Oklahomans are stretched out in a deck chair or even perched on a rooftop hoping for a good view. Ironically, I've heard many Oklahomans say they'd rather live here than in California. After all, you can't see an earthquake coming. And both the West and the Midwest are baffled by the people in Florida who rebuild their million-dollar homes each year, only to watch it be dismantled by what is sure to be a dozen serious hurricanes that will travel through the area.

     Given our penchant for fear of the unknown, we need an objective and thorough comparison to determine what is truly the most awesome type of natural disaster?

     I submit that we can describe it as follows. It's the one that haunts you when you sleep, the one where everything around you is utterly demolished, and if you're in the thick of it, it will absolutely take you down UNLESS you're a real badass and can survive through skill and know-how to prove your epic prowess and, you know, take pictures to post on Facebook. The most awesome kind of natural disaster will scare the bejesus out of the average Joe, wipe out everything in its path, and separate the quintessential Survival Man from his bumbling counterpart.

     So, to reiterate, there are three factors: 

1. chance of pants-, uhh, sullying (CPS),

2. wake of destruction (WOD),

3. badass requirement for survival (BRS).

      (Analysis will be based both on Internet data as well as on notable disaster films.)

Tsunami (tidal wave): a series of huge water waves, usually caused by earthquakes or underwater volcanic eruptions. 

CPS 90% A freakishly gigantic wall of water traveling over 500 mph that you can't see until it's too late? Ok, it compresses and slows down to about 50 mph near the shore, but by then you're screwed anyway. Remember that scene from Deep Impact with the father-and-daughter team willing waiting for a 100-foot wave to appear? Say no more. 

WOD 60% Less than ten years ago a tsunami killed 230,000 people in one fell swoop. The first incoming wave will destroy pretty much everything in its path, and the flooding that follows is ridiculous, able to make its way inland a mile or more, causing long-term disease and infrastructural disruption. Still, what's a mile of prime real estate? Just walk to the beach instead of living beside it! Problem solved. 

BRS 40% If you've ever seen Deep Impact, you know that as long as you have a dirtbike handy and hills are nearby, you can simply motor your way to safety. Tsunamis come from the sea so Oklahomans and the like are safe. Warning systems are better so you'll probably have a few hours to relocate, and that won't take much skill. 

Total score: 190

Hurricane (tropical cyclone): a spinning storm system causing strong winds and heavy precipitation.

CPS 40% Anything that has an eye even though it's not alive is creepy, but as long as you're not out in a boat (think: Perfect Storm) you're gonna go inside and wait it out. Rain and wind pounding on the windows is frightening, but not petrifying.

WOD 80% Basically, the water-aspect of a hurricane is outdone by a tsunami, and the wind-aspect is outdone by a tornado. In terms of flooding, much more area will be affected than in the case of a tsunami, but it won't be affected anywhere near as bad. And if there's a drought going on, celebrate! A disaster that people can be grateful for isn't much of a disaster, people. And as for wind, it lasts longer and (again) will cover a much larger area, but the winds won't be as strong.

BRS 20% Unless you live in a hut out in the middle of nowhere, you're gonna be warned days ahead of time and will be able to prepare like a mother. 

Total score: 140

Tornado (cyclone): a spinning column of air contacting both a cumulonimbus cloud and the ground.

CPS 100% The sky darkens into a sickly, almost toxic hue. Death is in the air, and it's so dark you can't see an approaching funnel – you have to feel it, you have to smell it. A tornado is a bit like a reverse "The Claw" from Toy Story. We can see it's passing through, but no one knows who will be "chosen." The suspense is terrifying. A tornado is a serial killer passing through the neighborhood, and God knows how he chooses his victims.

WOD 30% The big one that hit Moore ten years ago was two miles wide, much like the one in the movie Twister. Many tornadoes can track (stay on the ground) for dozens of miles. However, the damage is only severe within a narrow channel. Being a block away can make all the difference.

BRS 50% Not a lot of people have their own tornado hidey-hole, even in Oklahoma. You can't outrun or outmaneuver a funnel – it's too fast. So most people play the odds and sit inside watching the news. But even if fate were against you one day, even the dumbest trailer-park trash can think of about ten precautionary steps to take. Stay away from windows. Stay low. Tie yourself down. It'll be intense, but probably not fatal.

Total score: 180

Wildfire (brush fire): An uncontrolled burn in a forested or grassy wilderness.

CPS 50% With dry conditions and high winds these babies can be freakishly fast. And there's no worse way to go than being burned alive. However, most people live in cities and, besides Chicago 150 years ago, fires have a hard time scaring urbanites. Also, if you can fight the disaster itself and not just repair it, it can't be that scary. (There aren't any tornado- or volcano- fighters.)

WOD 30% The worst one ever, in the 1800s, caused 1500 deaths and burned 3.8 million acres (equivalent to a square with 80-mile sides). However, some trees depend on wildfires to seed and populate, and others to eliminate fast-growing but less hardy competitors. The life-giving nature of fire is too well-known to give a high score here.

BRS 80% Only you can prevent forest fires. Which means, if you're not a moron and avoid places for morons to tent and start campfires, you probably won't ever have to deal with one. On the other hand, if you were in the middle of a wildfire – flaming trees crashing down around you (a la Bambi), having to run through brush and jump over logs and weave your way to safety, outrunning sparks flying between 7 mph (in forests) and 14 mph (in grasslands) – you'd be a definite badass. 

Total score: 160

Volcanic eruption: lava, ash, and various gases are violently propelled through a crack in the earth's crust. 

CPS 90% Magma is, conceptually, the scariest stuff there is. "Don't touch the floor – it's lava!" How many of us played that game as kids? And the fact that this is coming directly from the earth's mantle. The sun can be blotted out for weeks from the noxious smoke. And the eruption is really, really loud. There are reports of people 3000 miles away hearing Krakatoa explode. And yet, whole cities of people choose to test fate and live right next door to active volcanoes. Weird.

WOD 70% Contrary to the vision popularized by Dante's Peak, rivers of lava isn't typically the big problem, nor is the sudden skin-melting acidity of nearby hot springs. What is, then? Toxic gases pour into the atmosphere, increasing CO₂concentrations, producing acid rain, and generally damaging plants and animals alike. Ash falls from the sky over a huge area, covering buildings, fields, disrupting machinery and human routine. But when those babies let loose, the shaking of the eruption can cause landslides, and worse still lahars – basically a mud-and-rock version of an avalanche, and much more deadly, since more people typically live nearby.

BRS 80% Thank God I don't live near a volcano. But if I did, and it exploded, believe me, I'd find out that the end of Return of the King, where Frodo and Sam are sitting on the slopes of an erupting volcano having a Kodak moment, was pretty unrealistic. Frodo and Sam weren't badass, but if you'd never seen the film and just saw that scene, you'd absolutely think they were badasses both.

Total score: 210 (currently in the lead)

     Staytuned for similar inquiries into hailstorms, avalanches, gamma ray bursts, and two mystery-disasters! We'll also table the results and announce a winner.